Long Range Forecast 3-16-11

Overview
Currently there is some fun northwest groundswell in the water. Most areas are seeing shoulder to overhead on sets, with standouts going several feet overhead on sets. Look for this swell to fade throughout the day, with a northwest groundswell filling in on thursday and peaking early friday. Weather will continue to start out with fog and light/variable winds with onshores picking up through mid morning hitting 10knots in the afternoon. This should all change by the weekend, with a new storm bringing spotty rain and wind saturday and sunday, along with more swell.

Wednesday: 4-6ft occasion 7ft: Dropping/fading northwest groundswell, biggest early. Possible morning wobble.
Thursday: 5-8 occasional 10ft with bigger sets and standout winter breaks. New northwest ground swell filling in and biggest in the afternoon. Morning sickness likely.
Friday: 5-8 occasional 10ft with bigger sets and standouts. Possible morning wobble.
Saturday: 5-8 occasional 10ft. Old northwest swell fading with new swell moving in and peaking. Gusty onshore winds at 15-20mph in afternoon.

As mentioned on the last report there is a moderate northwest groundswell for mid next week most likely around wednesday. This system is suppose to kick up at least 35ft waves, which translates to overhead surf for the next swell. The pattern continues to show more storms forming in a winterlike pattern, which will continue to bring moderate groundswells to socal. More on this on my next report.

Surf Forecaster,
Andy Stokely

Long Range Forecast 3-13-11

Overview
I hope everyone had a good surf weekend. The winds picked up much earlier then predicted on saturday, which put texture on most areas throughout the whole day. Today was much cleaner, but the surf was also smaller. Overall there looks to be a good week for surf coming our way.

Monday: 3-4 occasional 5ft. Fun fading swell combo, but winds are expected out the of the west throughout the whole day.

Tuesday: 4-7 occasional 8ft. Our new northwest groundswell tops out, so the best bet for size and consistency will be throughout the morning. The winds look much cleaner as they will be offshore through mid morning and then shift onshore to around 10kt for the afternoon.

Wednesday: 3-5ft. Our northwest ground swell continues to fade as the periods decrease throughout the day so will the size and constancy, so the biggest surf will be early. The winds look similar to Tuesday.

Long Range
With spring right around the corner the models are showing an increasingly strong winter pattern developing in the North Pacific. This pattern is allowing for strong storms to develop at low enough latitudes to bring good surf to so cal, but is keeping them far enough away, so that we do not receive the rain and wind associated with them. The wind at the beginning of the week is due to a costal eddy right off of our coast line, that is causing rather strong onshore winds offshore. This should strengthen again on Thursday, bringing pretty strong onshore winds with it(15-18+knots in the afternoon). A new northwest ground swell will also begin to arrive thursday afternoon with 18s periods and overhead+ surf to the top exposed breaks (South County). This swell will peak on Friday with overhead+ surf and possibly DOH sets at the top spots. This swell will begin to fade Saturday as more weather arrives in So Cal bringing wind and rain. As previously mentioned a very good pattern is setting up in the Pacific allowing for strong storms to form, but the jet stream is high enough to keep them away from So Cal. This allows long period groundswells to hit San Diego accompanied with good weather and winds.

Swell for mid next week

Mid next week is when our next swell should arrive with another shot of overhead surf for San Diego. Until my next report (Tuesday) have fun and stay safe!!!

Surf Forecaster
Andy Stokely